by Ashis Sinha
RNS: “It will be challenging to prevent the spread of a hypothetical “Disease X,” but it is feasible to control its spread,” said Wang Hesheng, the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control National Administration Director, during the World Economic Forum in Davos.
The forum, held from January 15-19, highlighted the need for preplanning for “Disease X,” which experts estimate could surpass the coronavirus pandemic by 20 times in terms of victims.
According to the media reports, Wang emphasised at a press conference, the importance of prevention and management measures for a potential “Disease X” pandemic. He noted that the risk of such a pandemic is increasing due to factors like accelerating global climate change, expanding human activities, and the growing cross-species transmission of pathogens.
The warning comes in line with previous statements by World Health Organisation (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who stated on October 26 that the emergence of a new pandemic is inevitable. He stressed the need for the international community to be prepared to respond to such a threat, it reported.
What is Disease X?
Disease X is a term coined by scientists and the World Health Organization (WHO) to describe a potential pathogen that could emerge in the future, leading to a severe international epidemic or pandemic. Recognizing the potential threat, Disease X was added to the WHO’s updated Blueprint list of diseases in February 2018, highlighting the need for global research and development investments. Additionally, Disease X is a key priority for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), emphasising the importance of preparedness and proactive measures to combat emerging infectious diseases.
Is Disease X a Real Threat? Understanding the Risks and Preparedness Needed
Disease X, while hypothetical in name, represents a genuine and escalating danger to global health that requires better readiness for response. The term does not refer to an existing illness but rather describes the potential for a new pathogen to emerge and threaten human health.
The most recent example of Disease X materialising was the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which led to the COVID-19 pandemic. The lack of preparedness resulted in rapid global spread and significant mortality. However, the development and deployment of vaccines have drastically reduced the impact of COVID-19, preventing millions of deaths.
Is Disease X Inevitable? Understanding the Uncertainty and Risks
The emergence of Disease X, a term representing a future unknown pathogen with pandemic potential, remains unpredictable. While the exact timing and origin of Disease X are uncertain, the likelihood of its emergence is high. Historically, such pathogens have originated from animals and then spread to humans, leading to disease outbreaks.
The frequency of severe disease outbreaks is increasing, as evidenced by outbreaks of SARS-CoV-1, MERS, Zika, and other viral diseases in the 21st century. A study published in 2022 indicates that the probability of a pandemic similar to COVID-19 occurring in any given year is approximately 1 in 50. This translates to a 38 per cent lifetime risk for individuals, highlighting the substantial threat posed by Disease X.
Environmental changes, including climate change and habitat destruction, play a significant role in increasing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Addressing these environmental factors is crucial in mitigating the risk of future pandemics.
Could Disease X Be the Next Pandemic? Exploring Potential Threats
The emergence of a novel Disease X as the next pandemic is a distinct possibility. However, it is also important to consider the risk posed by known pathogens mutating or re-emerging and causing widespread disease, as seen with the Chikungunya virus and other pathogens. These scenarios highlight the unpredictable nature of infectious disease threats and the need for continuous vigilance and preparedness.
