Ajay Kumar
Lucknow: After the defeat of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Legislative Assembly elections and the defeat of the Samajwadi Party in the Milkipur Assembly by-election in Ayodhya, the political mood in Uttar Pradesh is changing. This shifting atmosphere seems to be benefiting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is again confronted with the crucial question of how much trust it can place in the backward, Dalit, and minority (PDA) vote bank. While the SP leader was shaken by the loss in Milkipur, the more shocking aspect for Akhilesh is that even the Yadav community, alongside the PDA, turned their back on the Samajwadi Party. Milkipur has around 65,000 Yadav voters, and the reason for their shift away from the SP is attributed more to Akhilesh’s handling than to anyone else, particularly Awadhesh Prasad. Milkipur was once a seat dominated by the influence of Mitrasen Yadav, but in 2012 it was declared a Scheduled Caste (SC) seat, changing the political dynamics. Since then, Dalit leaders have emerged, with Awadhesh Prasad being one of them, who hails from the Pasi community. Moreover, Awadhesh Prasad never paid much attention to the Yadav voters in Milkipur. His relationships with the prominent SP leaders, Mitrasen Yadav and his son, were also strained.
While the BJP’s victory in Milkipur seemed unlikely, the party made it easier through its political acumen. First, the BJP fielded a leader from Awadhesh’s own community, Chandrabhan Paswan, against him. Second, the BJP succeeded in sending the message to the public that the Samajwadi Party is a family-run party, which is why it couldn’t find a candidate other than Awadhesh Prasad’s son, despite having many prominent leaders in the area. Several Yadav leaders were on the list of candidates seeking tickets, and Akhilesh’s decisions left them disappointed. As a result, the Yadav voters were eager to teach the Samajwadi Party a lesson. This is why the BJP’s victory was decisive. After the results, the message among the public was clear: the SP’s PDA vote bank had fallen apart.
Akhilesh had to personally step forward to tell his workers that the party would not back away from the PDA formula. The 2027 UP Assembly elections would still be fought with the support of the PDA, but after Milkipur’s humiliating defeat, the SP was now concerned about increasing its vote bank. Before the 2027 elections, the SP might also try to align with smaller parties and their leaders who have a strong hold over their respective communities. Additionally, Akhilesh has decided to continue raising Muslim issues in Parliament and on the streets to strengthen the Muslim vote bank, while staying silent on matters when necessary. This became evident during the incidents involving two Dalit girls in Ayodhya, where the SP’s different stance was observed. In the first case, the accused was a Muslim community-linked SP leader, and the party, along with Ayodhya’s SP MP Awadhesh Prasad, appeared to protect the accused. In the second case, when no such connection was found, the SP shed crocodile tears for the victim publicly. However, none of these tactics worked, as Dalits, backward classes, and Yadavs completely rejected the SP candidate. Only Muslims appeared to stand with the party. This is why, in Milkipur, Akhilesh’s PDA, combined with BJP’s Hindutva and Yogi’s aggressive stance, caused significant damage.
While Akhilesh could not forget the pain of Milkipur, his unease was further exacerbated by the huge crowds gathering daily at the Maha Kumbh. While people broke caste barriers to honor Sanatan’s glory at the Kumbh, Akhilesh seemed to be working on discrediting the Kumbh and scaring people away. He seemed to believe that Yogi’s Hindutva was overpowering the SP’s PDA, and thus he tried to undermine the Kumbh’s arrangements to deter people from attending. During the Mouni Amavasya, when a stampede led to casualties, Akhilesh intensified his political rhetoric, accusing the Yogi government of hiding the death toll. People began asking Akhilesh to clarify the death toll during the 1990 Ayodhya incident when his father, then Chief Minister Mulayam Singh, ordered police to open fire on unarmed karsevaks, turning the Sarayu river red with blood. However, Akhilesh does not engage in answering such questions. At present, he is solely focused on criticizing Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
Given all this, it would not be surprising if the Samajwadi Party faces even greater political losses in the future. Akhilesh seems to be focusing on securing 20% of the Muslim vote by defaming and dividing 80% of Hindus. But so far, he has not been successful in managing this delicate balance. Although his performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was commendable, he knows that the victory was more due to internal conflicts within BJP than his own political prowess. Overall, Akhilesh is increasingly being seen as an arrogant leader. The biggest issue with Akhilesh is that in situations where he could have helped his party by staying silent, he continues to spew venom with his words.
