Ajay Kumar, Lucknow
Uttar Pradesh has always been crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As the state that provides the most MPs and the most MLAs, Uttar Pradesh has now become a laboratory for Hindutva due to the sharp political style of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Under Yogi’s leadership, the BJP performed excellently in the 2022 Assembly elections. However, after that, the BJP faced a significant setback in the 2024 general elections, where the party, which claimed to win 70 seats from the state, only secured 36 seats, while the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance won 42, and the Azad Samaj Party secured one seat. The Congress won six seats. This had a significant negative impact on Yogi’s image. Akhilesh started promoting the backward, Dalit, and minority (PDA) politics, but in the by-elections to the Legislative Assembly, Yogi once again emerged assertively, leading the BJP to a dominant victory, completely outshining the Samajwadi Party.
The BJP also performed spectacularly in the by-election in the prominent Milkipur constituency of Ayodhya, where the voters rose above caste and community lines to vote for the BJP, deflating the PDA rhetoric of Akhilesh. Overall, after the 2024 general elections, significant changes have occurred in Uttar Pradesh’s political scene. The Mahakumbh event added to the momentum, where 660 million pilgrims took a holy dip in the Sangam. The entire state, and even the nation, became more aligned with Hindu ideals. Following these changes, there has been increasing discussion about a potential reshuffle in Yogi’s cabinet. It is expected that Yogi Adityanath may make changes in his cabinet during the Navratri period. Additionally, there could also be a reshuffling in the BJP’s organization with the announcement of a new state president. These speculations began when Chief Minister Yogi met with the Prime Minister in Delhi.
On March 9, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During this meeting, Yogi requested a date for the inauguration of the Jewar Airport in April. However, after their one-hour meeting, speculation began about a possible reshuffle in the UP Cabinet and changes in the BJP organization. After the Mahakumbh event, Yogi Adityanath was on a two-day visit to Delhi. A day before meeting the Prime Minister, Yogi had also met with BJP National President JP Nadda.
It is noteworthy that there has been ongoing deliberation regarding a new state president for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Additionally, six ministerial positions remain vacant in Yogi’s cabinet. Thus, the meeting between Yogi, JP Nadda, and PM Modi is seen as a consensus-building effort for the upcoming government and organizational changes. A new state president for BJP in Uttar Pradesh is expected to be announced after Holi, but the question remains whether there will be a reshuffle in Yogi’s government as well.
Although the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections are still two years away, the BJP, always prepared for elections, has already begun laying the groundwork for the 2027 elections in the state. The party faces the challenge of opposition in the form of the INDIA alliance, especially the Samajwadi Party’s backward, Dalit, and minority (PDA) politics. In the 2024 general elections, Akhilesh Yadav, riding on the PDA wave, dealt a significant blow to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. If the BJP’s traditional caste-based vote bank of upper-caste, backward, and Dalit voters was weakened, it had altered the political landscape of the state.
However, as the Assembly by-elections approached, under Yogi’s leadership, the BJP managed to decisively defeat the Samajwadi Party once again. In an interview, Chief Minister Yogi had mentioned that he had already begun strategizing for the 2027 elections. The BJP has been actively working on the ground to strengthen its position. After the meeting with the Prime Minister, it is believed that Yogi Adityanath could make significant changes in his cabinet during the Navratri period. Since the 2024 general elections, the possibility of changes in Yogi’s government has been speculated. Former minister Jitin Prasad had resigned from his ministerial post after becoming a Lok Sabha MP. The current state president of the BJP, Bhupendra Singh Choudhary, is set to be replaced. There are speculations about his potential return to the Yogi Cabinet, as he had served as a minister before taking charge as the state president.
At present, Yogi’s government has 54 ministers, with a maximum capacity of 60 ministers. This means there are six vacant ministerial positions, and therefore, an expansion of the Yogi Cabinet has been proposed for quite some time. Furthermore, Yogi’s government had recently conducted a review of its ministers’ performance and their influence on the ground, which has led to speculation about potential changes in the cabinet. It is believed that a major change could occur during the Navratri period. The expansion of the Yogi Cabinet is seen as an essential step towards preparing for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in 2027. Through this reshuffle, the BJP can further implement its strategy.
Regarding the Samajwadi Party, it is working on a winning formula focused on backward, Dalit, and minority communities, which could be countered by reshuffling the faces in Yogi’s Cabinet. Leaders with a strong foothold at the grassroots level could be brought into the cabinet to send a strong message to party workers.
A new state president for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh could soon be announced. The party is currently engaged in organizational elections within the state. After completing the election process for divisional presidents, the party is now focused on selecting district presidents. Due to some technical issues, the district president list has not yet been released. During his meeting with JP Nadda and the Prime Minister, Chief Minister Yogi likely discussed a formula for agreeing on the new state president and organizational changes.
Regarding the question of who will take over from Bhupendra Choudhary as the new state president, several names are being speculated. Uttar Pradesh is of significant importance for the BJP, and therefore, various factors will be considered while selecting the new president. When Bhupendra Choudhary was appointed in 2022, attention was paid to his compatibility with CM Yogi. It is believed that similar considerations will be made while selecting the new state president. The announcement is expected after Holi, which will also determine the direction and fate of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections.
BJP is working on a strategy of organizational changes that would aim to dismantle the Samajwadi Party’s PDA politics. The focus is on giving special attention to the backward and Dalit communities at the grassroots level in the BJP organization. The party is also assigning significant responsibilities to leaders from the Yadav community. In the 2024 general elections, the Samajwadi Party appeared to neglect a large section while trying to appeal to the PDA, but the BJP is focusing on a strategy to win 80% of the votes.
The BJP’s organizational strategy in Uttar Pradesh is to create a balance of social groups by accommodating multiple castes, working on the ground, and solidifying social alliances. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath says that the contest in Uttar Pradesh will be “80-20,” meaning the BJP will aim to secure 80% of the votes, leaving just 20% for other parties. This approach signifies the BJP’s strategy for securing a third consecutive term in 2027, and thus, efforts are underway to create a strong political foundation through cabinet expansion and organizational restructuring.
